threat-system changed?

[Noob_Guardian 417]

4 hours ago, VanilleKeks said:

I just remember porkuspigus using three different civ cars in the same mission, to try and blow me up. Such commitment I can't but not appreciate.

dear god, that's hilarious. It's a shame you cannot do that anymore easily. All vehicles now have a big mod header when you hover over them (unless someones driving it?), it's a real shame.

[Hexerin 1140]

On 10/11/2019 at 2:17 PM, Noob_Guardian said:

hex, ive never seen his/her car.

I use a range of cars depending on what mood I'm in to drive. They all use High-Burn Fuel, and I pretty much never swap away from Blowtorch. I occasionally will swap it out for Field Supplier, but that's rare since I rarely am in a situation where I don't have ready access to my vehicle.

 

You'll mostly see me rolling around in my Pioneer these days though. With bronze district's population now being 90% dethreated golds (thanks for that, @MattScott ), concussion grenades are fucking everywhere. Pioneer's handling is high enough that it can bait the grenades and (usually) avoid them.

 

The only time I swap out for Explosives and Remote Detonator is when I feel the need to curbstomp someone who's being a cancerous little shit. Even then, it's pretty much exclusively when I'm holding an item on top of that one half inside / half outside parking structure sitting on the edge of the highway by Seung/Suji.

[crusade 89]

2 hours ago, Hexerin said:

bronze district

You're silver? That's explains everything, actually.

[CookiePuss 5373]

56 minutes ago, crusade said:

You're silver? That's explains everything, actually.

lol... rekt

[cheater 296]

I wonder why you became silver, maybe team killing and remote detonating and changing cars during the whole mission is not how you win and gain score

[CookiePuss 5373]

17 minutes ago, cheater said:

I wonder why you became silver, maybe team killing and remote detonating and changing cars during the whole mission is not how you win and gain score

Gotta do what you gotta do if you want to keep stomping noobs and propping up your fragile ego.

[cheater 296]

17 minutes ago, CookiePuss said:

Gotta do what you gotta do if you want to keep stomping noobs and propping up your fragile ego.

Thing is he wastes 40 seconds to change to a car that looks like a civ to only remote detonate himself or a teammate, teamkills people in his team when he goes 0 5 and he just runs medusa with kevlar 3 all the time, this guy lacks basic functions to be fair, kinda surprised he made a forum post about going silver

Edited October 13, 2019 by cheater

[CookiePuss 5373]

4 minutes ago, cheater said:

Thing is he wastes 40 seconds to change to a car that looks like a civ to only remote detonate himself or a teammate, teamkills people in his team when he goes 0 5 and he just runs medusa with kevlar 3 all the time, this guy lacks basic functions to be fair, kinda surprised he made a forum post about going silver

oof... best teammate ever

[Noob_Guardian 417]

4 hours ago, cheater said:

Thing is he wastes 40 seconds to change to a car that looks like a civ to only remote detonate himself or a teammate, teamkills people in his team when he goes 0 5 and he just runs medusa with kevlar 3 all the time, this guy lacks basic functions to be fair, kinda surprised he made a forum post about going silver

I don't know about you, but using det, kev, and medusa is fair. Teamkilling isnt though, buuuut i do it consistently at times

[CookiePuss 5373]

10 minutes ago, Noob_Guardian said:

I don't know about you, but using det, kev, and medusa is fair. Teamkilling isnt though, buuuut i do it consistently at times

Fair? Yes.

A good idea? Absolutely not.

[Hexerin 1140]

10 hours ago, crusade said:

You're silver? That's explains everything, actually.

Nowadays yes, I maintain silver. I've stopped caring about putting any effort into this game several years ago, after I got tired of dealing with the cancerous social politics of gold district. Nowadays I just roll around with newbies, propping them up when they show they're invested in becoming good members of the community. Still occasionally visit silver district, but usually lose interest fairly quickly due to a lack of any challenge from the golds there. Actually get more of a challenge from the dethreated golds in bronze, which isn't very surprising but still quite a sad state of the game.

[CookiePuss 5373]

8 minutes ago, Hexerin said:

Nowadays yes, I maintain silver. I've stopped caring about putting any effort into this game several years ago, after I got tired of dealing with the cancerous social politics of gold district. Nowadays I just roll around with newbies, propping them up when they show they're invested in becoming good members of the community. Still occasionally visit silver district, but usually lose interest fairly quickly due to a lack of any challenge from the golds there. Actually get more of a challenge from the dethreated golds in bronze, which isn't very surprising but still quite a sad state of the game.

 

Best post of the day hands down.

[Hexerin 1140]

1 minute ago, CookiePuss said:

Best post of the day hands down.

Considering you joined the game long after I stopped playing in gold, I'm not surprised you'd doubt. Honestly, there's maybe enough people left from those days to count on one hand. Most of those have a vendetta against me anyways, so they're not exactly valid references on this regardless.

[CookiePuss 5373]

9 minutes ago, Hexerin said:

Considering you joined the game long after I stopped playing in gold, I'm not surprised you'd doubt. Honestly, there's maybe enough people left from those days to count on one hand. Most of those have a vendetta against me anyways, so they're not exactly valid references on this regardless.

You have been playing in bronze district for the last 5 years? That's messed up.

Also... if the golds are so easy, how do you end up silver?

 

[Hexerin 1140]

30 minutes ago, CookiePuss said:

You have been playing in bronze district for the last 5 years? That's messed up.

Not really. There's a difference between playing in bronze, and farming bronze. Helping newbies (and smashing on the farmers) is generally a good way to tell that difference.

30 minutes ago, CookiePuss said:

Also... if the golds are so easy, how do you end up silver?

By having a thorough understanding of how the threat system works. It's actually very easy to lower your average threat level organically and healthily, it just takes significantly longer than the brute force method employed by most.

[CookiePuss 5373]

Just now, Hexerin said:

Not really. There's a difference between playing in bronze, and farming bronze. Helping newbies (and smashing on the farmers) is generally a good way to tell that difference.

By having a thorough understanding of how the threat system works. It's actually very easy to lower your average threat level organically and healthily, it just takes significantly longer than the brute force method employed by most

And a dethreater. Nice.

No wonder no one pays any attention to your posts.

[Hexerin 1140]

4 minutes ago, CookiePuss said:

And a dethreater. Nice. No wonder no one pays any attention to your posts.

This is why there can never be a civil discussion on the issue, you people escalate it far too much. The world isn't black and white.

[CookiePuss 5373]

1 minute ago, Hexerin said:

This is why there can never be a civil discussion on the issue, you people escalate it far too much. The world isn't black and white.

Not always.
But in this case, it is.

[Revoluzzer 274]

On 10/12/2019 at 4:25 AM, Noob_Guardian said:

Where do you think the CV stat baselines are and how it determines if it increased enough to threat up to silver from bronze

The baseline for 'confidence' is 0. That's when your threat is 100% volatile. There are only two types of players who will have a CV of 0 - new ones and dethreaters. For most other players the CV will probably hover in a "medium" position (assuming it goes from 0 to 1 that would mean ~0.5 for most players). Some players who perform very consistently will be close to the max value.

 

How does the system know when your threat has to change from one colour to another? Simple, that's based on your glicko value. A range of values corresponds to a colour. A subset of values corresponds to a threat level within that colour (e.g. Silver 7). Since glicko works with fairly high numbers (afaik in the four digit range) I assume each threat level is composed of a relatively large range of glicko values (easily double digits).

 

Now here's why I don't think the system needs to look at your past X matches' performance: To calculate threat you need only two ingredients: 1) The current threat level of everyone in the match, which defines the expected performance of everyone in the match; 2) the actual performance of every player in the match at the end.

Did they meet their expectation? Keep their threat at the same level (rather unlikely to happen; at least some minimal movement is expected to happen at all times).

Did they fail to meet their expectation? Adjust their threat accordingly.

 

Why do we need a confidence value at all then? It acts as a stop-gap to reduce threat volatility and the constant change in threat levels (now hidden, of course) which would come with it.

Why do we need this stop-gap? Because otherwise players would regularly have their threat-level change in unexpected ways (e.g. lose, but have it raised), which causes confusion and oftentimes anger.

 

With the CV in effect minor spikes in performance (both up- and downwards) will be much less relevant and keep the system more stable and accurate.

 

 

At no point is it required to look back at your past performance, because your current threat level / glicko value already represents how you performed in the past. That's how it got to where it is.

[CookiePuss 5373]

10 minutes ago, Revoluzzer said:

The baseline for 'confidence' is 0. That's when your threat is 100% volatile. There are only two types of players who will have a CV of 0 - new ones and dethreaters. For most other players the CV will probably hover in a "medium" position (assuming it goes from 0 to 1 that would mean ~0.5 for most players). Some players who perform very consistently will be close to the max value.

 

How does the system know when your threat has to change from one colour to another? Simple, that's based on your glicko value. A range of values corresponds to a colour. A subset of values corresponds to a threat level within that colour (e.g. Silver 7). Since glicko works with fairly high numbers (afaik in the four digit range) I assume each threat level is composed of a relatively large range of glicko values (easily double digits).

 

Now here's why I don't think the system needs to look at your past X matches' performance: To calculate threat you need only two ingredients: 1) The current threat level of everyone in the match, which defines the expected performance of everyone in the match; 2) the actual performance of every player in the match at the end.

Did they meet their expectation? Keep their threat at the same level (rather unlikely to happen; at least some minimal movement is expected to happen at all times).

Did they fail to meet their expectation? Adjust their threat accordingly.

 

Why do we need a confidence value at all then? It acts as a stop-gap to reduce threat volatility and the constant change in threat levels (now hidden, of course) which would come with it.

Why do we need this stop-gap? Because otherwise players would regularly have their threat-level change in unexpected ways (e.g. lose, but have it raised), which causes confusion and oftentimes anger.

 

With the CV in effect minor spikes in performance (both up- and downwards) will be much less relevant and keep the system more stable and accurate.

 

 

At no point is it required to look back at your past performance, because your current threat level / glicko value already represents how you performed in the past. That's how it got to where it is.

Can someone pin this somewhere?

[SalomaLeal 13]

On 10/8/2019 at 8:32 PM, porkuspigus said:

Hi!  i  was gold, but now im silver  ;  last time when i was silver, was in 2017.  Did  threat-system changed? i read some posts about  elo-based threat system... 

yes im was silber last weak and todey me bronza

[NotZombieBiscuit 3146]

4 hours ago, Hexerin said:

Considering you joined the game long after I stopped playing in gold, I'm not surprised you'd doubt. Honestly, there's maybe enough people left from those days to count on one hand. Most of those have a vendetta against me anyways, so they're not exactly valid references on this regardless.

Don't worry, Cookie is Silver too and is just projecting.

[Noob_Guardian 417]

3 hours ago, Revoluzzer said:

The baseline for 'confidence' is 0. That's when your threat is 100% volatile. There are only two types of players who will have a CV of 0 - new ones and dethreaters. For most other players the CV will probably hover in a "medium" position (assuming it goes from 0 to 1 that would mean ~0.5 for most players). Some players who perform very consistently will be close to the max value.

 

How does the system know when your threat has to change from one colour to another? Simple, that's based on your glicko value. A range of values corresponds to a colour. A subset of values corresponds to a threat level within that colour (e.g. Silver 7). Since glicko works with fairly high numbers (afaik in the four digit range) I assume each threat level is composed of a relatively large range of glicko values (easily double digits).

 

Now here's why I don't think the system needs to look at your past X matches' performance: To calculate threat you need only two ingredients: 1) The current threat level of everyone in the match, which defines the expected performance of everyone in the match; 2) the actual performance of every player in the match at the end.

Did they meet their expectation? Keep their threat at the same level (rather unlikely to happen; at least some minimal movement is expected to happen at all times).

Did they fail to meet their expectation? Adjust their threat accordingly.

 

Why do we need a confidence value at all then? It acts as a stop-gap to reduce threat volatility and the constant change in threat levels (now hidden, of course) which would come with it.

Why do we need this stop-gap? Because otherwise players would regularly have their threat-level change in unexpected ways (e.g. lose, but have it raised), which causes confusion and oftentimes anger.

 

With the CV in effect minor spikes in performance (both up- and downwards) will be much less relevant and keep the system more stable and accurate.

 

 

At no point is it required to look back at your past performance, because your current threat level / glicko value already represents how you performed in the past. That's how it got to where it is.

Except that g1 had expressly stated that they did look at a number of previous matches to determine threat, and since the point system, no such changes have been announced to the threat system to say they changed the system to the one you describe, without the match averages. Nor did they say that the system changed to not include the previous match information (not that they had to, but it would seem odd that they'd leave it out)

 

I believe that this was also said around the time if not after Settle the Score came out as I've known about the ~50 match tracking ( since the summer/fall of gold lock because I HAD tried to dethreat during that time after learning about it, but decided it was too much effort). I forget when Settle the Score came out exactly.

 

The system to my knowledge runs similar to what you're saying, but it accounts for your overall progress over a number of matches. You also talk about CV but how is it calculated? You simply talk about the glicko values. How does the confidence value change? What is that based on? Over how long is that CV based? How does it know that its confident? You can't have that value without some sort of performance over time basis can you?

 

What about them trying to keep a ~20% gold pop ~30%-40% silver whatever it is for bronze and gold. How is that handled?

Edited October 14, 2019 by Noob_Guardian

[CookiePuss 5373]

1 hour ago, NotZombieBiscuit said:

Don't worry, Cookie is Silver too and is just projecting.

God damn it.

[Hexerin 1140]

2 hours ago, NotZombieBiscuit said:

Don't worry, Cookie is Silver too and is just projecting.

Don't recall ever seeing him silver.