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Colby M-1922 'Hazardous' - The chance to get one?


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#1
Timothycricket

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Okay so I've been opening the Joker Mystery Boxes for a while now and I never seem to be able to get the Colby, which inevitably is the goal of opening them. So far I've opened around 100+ and I've received a lot of 30 Day Premiums and 1 Dolton Frezno (Which I hate with a passion -.-). I was wondering if anyone knew the statistical chances of getting the Colby M-1922 'Hazardous' by opening a Joker Mystery Box. If you know please reply but if you already have one, could you estimate how many it took you?

Many thanks,

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#2
GodsLikeMe

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1%.. I guess LOL
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#3
monkeyjuice1

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It's 1/100, but it doesn't improve your chances each time you buy a mystery box. It essentially resets each box.

I have one. I bought 4 boxes on my Enforcer, didn't get it. Bought two boxes on my Criminal, first box contained a Hazardous.

Edited by monkeyjuice1, 11 May 2012 - 01:56 AM.


#4
Timothycricket

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I'll just keep going then :L it sucks, I know people who've got it in their 5th box -.-

#5
-Ego-

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Okay, for arguments sake lets say it's 1/200 chance to get the hazardous.

You buy 10 boxes, but don't get the hazardous.

1/190 right?

So if you buy 190 boxes you're guaranteed to get it. Except, that count is shared by EVERYONE in this entire game, so by the time you've bought 10 boxes, a hundred people could have bought 190 boxes, which means it gets reset back to 1/200. So basically, unless you buy over 200 boxes at once, you could never get the hazardous.

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#6
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I doubt that's how it works Ego :unsure:
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#7
Gobbers

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 Schneider, on 11 May 2012 - 02:12 AM, said:

I doubt that's how it works Ego :unsure:
Yeah, i was about to say that too. That is some really scary thinking he got going there. Oh dear, the math teacher next door went up in flames, i wonder why? :Droollip:

#8
Timothycricket

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 -Ego-, on 11 May 2012 - 02:10 AM, said:

Okay, for arguments sake lets say it's 1/200 chance to get the hazardous.

You buy 10 boxes, but don't get the hazardous.

1/190 right?

So if you buy 190 boxes you're guaranteed to get it. Except, that count is shared by EVERYONE in this entire game, so by the time you've bought 10 boxes, a hundred people could have bought 190 boxes, which means it gets reset back to 1/200. So basically, unless you buy over 200 boxes at once, you could never get the hazardous.

That's good logic but not entirely sure that's how it works, and if it turns out to be the case, well then hats off to you my good sir.

#9
DeanGrey

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You could just work up to TipToe/Devil Dog. Then again that is a long trip. I haven't actually looked up the Hazardous but isn't it just a two slotted M-1922?

#10
monkeyjuice1

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How it works:
  • 1/100 chance each box.
  • Each box is individual.
  • Boxes don't stack (e.g. buying 5 boxes isn't considered 5/100 chances).
  • Consider the '/100' as a percentage instead of 100 boxes.

What Ego said about the player-count thing is absolute bollocks. No offence.

#11
Timothycricket

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 DeanGrey, on 11 May 2012 - 02:23 AM, said:

You could just work up to TipToe/Devil Dog. Then again that is a long trip. I haven't actually looked up the Hazardous but isn't it just a two slotted M-1922?

Could but I'm only a Rank 78 who plays casual hours... I don't usually buy stuff off the Armas but buying Joker Boxes for Premium seems to be quite cost efficiant seeing as I always get the gosh darning 30 Day Premium I don't need -.-

#12
Timothycricket

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 monkeyjuice1, on 11 May 2012 - 02:28 AM, said:

How it works:
  • 1/100 chance each box.
  • Each box is individual.
  • Boxes don't stack (e.g. buying 5 boxes isn't considered 5/100 chances).
  • Consider the '/100' as a percentage instead of 100 boxes.

What Ego said about the player-count thing is absolute bollocks. No offence.

But if you buy more the chance increases that eventually one of the boxes will pay out I would have thought?

#13
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 -Ego-, on 11 May 2012 - 02:10 AM, said:

Okay, for arguments sake lets say it's 1/200 chance to get the hazardous.

You buy 10 boxes, but don't get the hazardous.

1/190 right?

So if you buy 190 boxes you're guaranteed to get it. Except, that count is shared by EVERYONE in this entire game, so by the time you've bought 10 boxes, a hundred people could have bought 190 boxes, which means it gets reset back to 1/200. So basically, unless you buy over 200 boxes at once, you could never get the hazardous.


It's not bollocks, it's the system they use for every lucky capsule or random box generator. The more people that buy the boxes that don't win the star prize, the higher the probability gets.

For example, if 150 people buy it you get a 1/50 chance to get the hazardous instead of 1/200, and when someone wins it it gets reset. I don't know the actual starting probability, but I'm pretty sure that's how it works. It's probably around 1/100 starting, so 1%.

I think you guys misunderstood my post.

Edited by -Ego-, 11 May 2012 - 02:33 AM.

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#14
Timothycricket

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 -Ego-, on 11 May 2012 - 02:32 AM, said:

It's not bollocks, it's the system they use for every lucky capsule or random box generator. The more people that buy the boxes that don't win the star prize, the higher the probability gets.

For example, if 150 people buy it you get a 1/50 chance to get the hazardous instead of 1/200, and when someone wins it it gets reset. I don't know the actual starting probability, but I'm pretty sure that's how it works. It's probably around 1/100 starting, so 1%.

I think you guys misunderstood my post.

Oh I understand now, thanks for clearing things up - was proper gosh darning confused :L



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